Big energy legislation will produce little change.

The recently-enacted higher corporate average fuel economy ("CAFE") standards for light duty vehicles will improve fuel economy almost enough to offset continuing growth in population, vehicles, and miles driven through 2030, according to a report from the Energy Information Agency ("EIA"). Liquid Highway fuels use is projected to increase from a current level of 20.7 million barrels per day to only 22.8 million barrels per day in 2030.  (Corrected 5/25/08.)

The changes to the renewable fuels standard ("RFS") in the same legislation are projected to force an increase in the use of biofuels to the point that they supply 11 percent of highway fuels by 2030. Thus, EIA forecasts a very slight decrease in the use of petroleum-derived highway fuels over the next 23 years.

By rejecting the higher CAFE standards that were proposed, Congress missed an opportunity to go beyond just stabilizing our dependence on petroleum to decreasing it. The legislation also fails as an anti-global-warming strategy: Since roughly 75-80 percent of the energy content in corn-derived ethanol comes from the fossil fuel inputs and not from the solar inputs, the impact on carbon dioxide emissions from the highway transportation sector will be minimal.  (Corrected 6/1/08.)